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Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 403, Band 403) - Brennscheidt, Gunnar
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Brennscheidt, Gunnar:

Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 403, Band 403) - Paperback

1993, ISBN: 9783540573111

Springer - Verlag, Taschenbuch, Auflage: Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1993, 244 Seiten, Publiziert: 1993-01-01T00:00:01Z, Produktgruppe: Buch, Hersteller-Nr.: biography, 0.83… More...

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Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 403, Band 403) - Brennscheidt, Gunnar
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Brennscheidt, Gunnar:

Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 403, Band 403) - Paperback

1993, ISBN: 9783540573111

Springer - Verlag, Taschenbuch, Auflage: Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1993, 244 Seiten, Publiziert: 1993-01-01T00:00:01Z, Produktgruppe: Buch, Hersteller-Nr.: biography, 0.83… More...

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Predictive behavior Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems ; Vol. 403 - Brennscheidt, Gunnar,
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Brennscheidt, Gunnar,:
Predictive behavior Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems ; Vol. 403 - used book

1993

ISBN: 3540573119

(Berlin VI, 227 S. : graph. Darst. ; 24 cm Unbekannter Einband Ehem. Bibliotheksexemplar in GUTEM Zustand, wenige Gebrauchsspuren. Ex-library in GOOD condition, few traces of use. Sb 194… More...

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Predictive Behavior. An Experimental Study. (=Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems 403). - Brennscheidt, Gunnar
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Brennscheidt, Gunnar:
Predictive Behavior. An Experimental Study. (=Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems 403). - Paperback

1993, ISBN: 9783540573111

[PU: Berlin, Springer Vlg.], VI, 227 pp. Large 8vo. Softcover, no dust jacket, copy out of an official library with library signs and stamps / signatures, binding and cutting partially a … More...

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Predictive Behavior. An Experimental Study. (=Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems 403). - Brennscheidt, Gunnar
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Brennscheidt, Gunnar:
Predictive Behavior. An Experimental Study. (=Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems 403). - Paperback

1993, ISBN: 3540573119

Large 8vo. Softcover, no dust jacket, copy out of an official library with library signs and stamps / signatures, binding and cutting partially a bit stained, otherwise fine copy. VI, 22… More...

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Details of the book
Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 403, Band 403)
Author:
Title:
ISBN:

9783540573111


This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This design provides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels, underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc. , are studied.

Details of the book - Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 403, Band 403)


EAN (ISBN-13): 9783540573111
ISBN (ISBN-10): 3540573119
Hardcover
Paperback
Publishing year: 1993
Publisher: Springer - Verlag
Weight: 0,316 kg
Language: Englisch

Book in our database since 2007-03-05T05:51:45+00:00 (London)
Detail page last modified on 2023-01-11T10:20:54+00:00 (London)
ISBN/EAN: 9783540573111

ISBN - alternate spelling:
3-540-57311-9, 978-3-540-57311-1
Alternate spelling and related search-keywords:
Book author: gunnar
Book title: experiment economics, experimental economics, lecture notes economics, systems, 403

Information from Publisher

Author: Gunnar Brennscheidt
Title: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems; Predictive Behavior - An Experimental Study
Publisher: Springer; Springer Berlin
227 Pages
Publishing year: 1993-11-29
Berlin; Heidelberg; DE
Language: English
53,49 € (DE)
54,99 € (AT)
59,00 CHF (CH)
Available
VI, 227 p.

BC; Hardcover, Softcover / Wirtschaft/Volkswirtschaft; Wirtschaftstheorie und -philosophie; Verstehen; Erwartungsbildung; Expectation Formation; Experimentelle Wirtschaftsforschung; Rationality of Expectations; Rationalität der Erwartungen; economics; experimental economics; forecasting; regression; time series; Quantitative Economics; EA

0. Literature Review.- 0.1 Empirical Studies and Experimental Studies.- 0.2 Hypotheses to Be Tested.- 0.3 Description of Selected Empirical Studies.- 0.4 Description of Selected Experimental Studies.- 0. 5 Concluding Comments on the Literature.- 1. Rationality in Presence of Exogenous Variables.- 1.1 Fully Rational and Least-Squares-Learning Predictions.- 1.2 Predictions Based on Misspecified Models.- 2. Experimental Design and Notation.- 2.1 Experimental Design.- 2.2 Notation.- 3. Aggregate Forecasts.- 3.1 Forecast Error and Deviations from Rational Predictions.- 3.2 Least-Squares Learning.- 3.3 Some Non-Rational Features of Forecasts.- 3.4 “Trend-Underestimating Predictions”.- 3.5 Learning Behavior?.- 3.6 The Influence of Single Variables.- 3.7 Psychological Factors.- 3.8 Concluding Remarks on Average Forecasts.- 4. Sum Results on Individual Forecasts.- 4.1 Comparison to Various Prediction Concepts.- 4.2 Non-Rational Features of Forecasts.- 4.3 Learning Behavior.- 4.4 Regression on Single Exogenous Variables.- 4.5 Psychological Factors.- 5. Features of Individual Forecasts.- 5.1 The Questionnaires.- 5.2 Categories of Individual Forecasts.- 5.3 Preference for “Round” Numbers.- 5.4 The Time Spent for Forecasting.- 5.5 The Dispersion of Forecasts.- 6. Conclusion.- 7. Appendix.- 7.1 Mean Absolute Deviations from Various Prediction Concepts.- 7.2 Regression on Single Exogenous Variables.- 8. References.
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